Research supposedly suggests that August-born pupils are “significantly” less likely to attain five good GCSEs than those born in September, and that “the biggest factor affecting children’s performance is the age at which they sit the tests”. Both quotes are taken directly from BBC News Online.

Not only is that second statement overly broad and incredibly unlikely to be true – probably more the fault of the BBC reporter than the IFS report – but the results themselves amount to little more than a useless statistic, for several reasons.

Firstly, it’s not particularly helpful. Secondly, it’s obvious, really, that children born in the autumn would perform slightly better than their summer-born counterparts because, well, they’re up to 11 months older. It’s only worthy of a mention if the difference is, as the BBC calls it, “significant”. And therein lies the problem.

There is not a significant disparity in the statistics. 55% of girls born in August achieve five GCSEs of grade A* to C, compared to 60% of girls born in September; and for the boys, the ratio is 44% to 50%. Probably more worrying here is the continuation of the boy/girl divide in exam results – more than 10% according to these figures – but instead the focus has been on that piddling 5% difference between pupils born at opposite ends of the school year. What use is that?

Even if 5% represents several thousand children, the ‘gap’ is not enough to cause concern. After all, the study would probably produce other, similar statistics of equally little worth. On average, left-handed people die seven years earlier than right-handed people, but that little fact is quite rightly condemned to pub trivia rather than a published – and publicised – report.

The BBC, too, is guilty of alarmism here. There is nothing in the statistics to prompt the headline and opening gambit, “Summer-born children do significantly worse in exams than those born earlier in the school year”. The article even uses the absurd phrase, “the August birth penalty”. Still, their enthusiasm does excuse – almost – the imbecile of a woman who, when asked in the street, said the results would make her rethink the timing of her pregnancy.

It’s not too far away from the codology of astrology, with its ‘Pluto being obsequious in the realm of Virgo and Leo violating Saturn when Venus’ back is turned’. Ah, wise woman, do not get thine bun in thine oven until the ides of March, for a child conceived in Autumn and born in Summer will only ever be a plumber. Bollocks.

Save the number-crunching for when it’s of some use.