Trump will be better for the economy. That is what the majority of his voters, from the diehard MAGA to the desperate and disenfranchised Americans, seemed to be telling themselves when they put a cross next to his name in the polling booth.
But Trump’s path to “Make American Great Again” actually appears to involve shrinking the economy, reducing workers’ rights, retracting women’s rights, raising prices, lowering employment, and giving tax breaks to the wealthy (funny that). And despite twenty-three of the world’s most notable economists—all of whom are Noble Prize winners—warning America that Trump’s economic policies will stoke inflation, no one seemed to listen. The narrative was already set in place and there was seemingly nothing the Democrats could do to change it. Contrary to popular belief, the American economy is, according to facts and figures, actually doing really well. The US economy had the strongest pandemic recovery within the G7, growing three times as fast as France and Japan, and four times as fast as Britain. Under Biden, the unemployment rate was the lowest in fifty years. The Trump presidency added 6.7 million jobs, Biden added 16 million. Wages are up, the stock market is hitting all time highs, and inflation has now fallen to around 3%.
The problem is, American people are not feeling it in their pockets. The memory of peak pandemic-induced inflation (where it hit 9.2% in 2022) is still fresh, with two-thirds (67%) of voters saying the condition of the economy is “not good/poor” according to an exit poll. Despite low inflation, prices remain high, with goods and services costing consumers about 20% more today compared to February 2020, per CPI data. But Biden had no control over the pandemic-rattled economy he inherited, and surprisingly enough, there is no magic “stop inflation” button underneath the President’s desk in the Oval Office. While Trump got to ride the coattails of Obama’s strong economy that he had carefully crafted over eight years, Biden had to face the immediate task of heading off a recession as the country slowly started to recover from the pandemic economic slump.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has also contributed to inflation, dramatically increasing energy and food prices. The price of gas was a big issue for voters in this election, but instead of blaming Putin, they allowed MAGA to convince them it was purely Biden’s fault. Instead of looking at other countries across the world— who have all largely been suffering with inflation, recessions, and hardship as a consequence of the pandemic (including our own, of course) — or listening to the economic experts, Americans looked towards the multi-billionaire Elon Musk for advice. This is a man who made $20 billion overnight as a direct result of the Trump win, a man who will largely benefit from the tax cuts that Trump is planning on giving to corporations and high-income earners, and a man who openly admitted he would be “fucked” if Trump lost. Really sounds like an impartial and reliable source to get economic advice from.
Evidence shows that Trump’s economic proposals would, on average, lead to a tax cut for the richest 5% of Americans, and a tax increase for all other income groups, with working-class families being hit the hardest, according to the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy. While Trump tries to argue that tax cuts for the wealthy will stimulate investment and economic activity, in reality we have seen time and time again that “trickle-down economics” doesn’t work. Instead, it simply exacerbates inequality and increases the federal deficit, with economists warning that Trump’s tax plans will increased the federal debt by a colossal $7.8 trillion.
Another hallmark of Trump’s campaign is the use of tariffs—his “favourite word”—which he plans to enforce on all trade, with a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10 to 20% universal tariff for the rest of the world. He told voters that this would grow the economy, protect jobs, and raise revenue. Instead, tariffs are likely to raise inflation, disrupt global commerce, create supply-chain bottlenecks and, most importantly, increase costs for ordinary Americans, with businesses likely to pass the import costs onto consumers through higher prices. According to experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the tariff plan alone would add $1,700 in annual costs for the typical US household.
In contrast, Kamala Harris had specific plans to improve the economy and help Americans cope with higher prices. In her first one hundred-days, Harris had pledged to pass a national ban on “price gouging” to lower food prices, giving the Federal Trade Commission and prosecutors authority to go after companies on this issue, as well as investigating price-fixing in meat supply chains.
Regarding taxes, Harris planned to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for workers in lower-income jobs, which would cut taxes by up to $1,250, as well as promising to continue President Biden’s promise not to raise taxes on American households earning $400,000 or less annually. She also supported raising taxes for high earners and corporations.
Additionally, she planned a $50,000 tax deduction for new small businesses, setting a goal of 25 million new small business applications in her first two years. She also proposed creating a $3,600 tax credit per child and $6,000 for newborns to help with the high costs of raising a family, and a $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers. Many experts supported this, with twenty-three Nobel-winning economists saying that Harris’ economic agenda was “vastly superior” to Trump’s and would improve the nation’s employment opportunities, health, investment, and fairness.
Yet, despite all of this, American voters still believed Trump would be the better option. Although, we really shouldn’t be surprised. Across the world, we have witnessed a remarkably consistent trend of voters turning against incumbents in elections; including Japan, South Africa, France, India and the UK. Governments, no matter the party political affiliation, are all falling, and Kamala Harris is simply the latest victim to add to the casualty list.
Yes, there were certainly aspects of her campaign that could have been improved, and maybe if she had more time then she could have gained more votes, but she would have, quite frankly, needed an absolute miracle to overcome this tornado of voter indignation that is sweeping across the globe. Unfortunately, disillusionment at the scale we are witnessing encourages voters to turn to radical solutions, even if it is actually against their own interests to do so, and for America, Donald Trump was that very answer.