It has been 18 years since Wales introduced a ban on smoking in public places. It’s clear how this legislation impacted the public opinion of smoking: while 24% of adults smoked in 2007, it’s estimated to be around 13% today. Following this success, the Welsh government aspires for the country to be ‘smoke free’ by 2030.

However, the habit remains popular among young people. A survey of Cardiff University found 36% of students smoke, with 14% of them also using vapes. This is higher than the national average, which may suggest students are more likely to smoke than the average adult.

Students fit into the ‘cluster’ described by Public Health Wales as mostly single with no children, educated and employed, facing less deprivation but with poorer mental health. Their research showed smoking was more common (39%) among this ‘cluster’ than other groups of adults. But why is it so prevalent among these particular adults?

Students may take up smoking due to mental health problems. An estimated 30% of smokers in the UK have a mental health condition. In a survey of Cardiff students, autism, depression, and self-harm were the most common diagnoses among smokers.

Other conditions reported were chronic illness, eating disorders, anxiety, and other disabilities. In recent years, mental health problems have tripled for university students, which could correspond with an increased rate of smoking or vaping. But it is a chicken and egg situation.

It isn’t clear whether people start smoking because of ill health or if smokers are more prone to mental health problems. Smoking can cause anxiety, as well as financial and health issues which may worsen someone’s wellbeing. There is evidence to show it makes users more vulnerable to mental health problems, particularly depression and schizophrenia.

It can also cause pre-existing conditions to progress. Although there is a clear relationship between smoking and mental health, there’s no way to prove the cause and effect. The survey also doesn’t have a baseline, as it didn’t establish the prevalence of diagnoses in people who didn’t smoke.

Plenty of people deal with depression without cigarettes or vapes. Similarly, smoking has been associated with poor academic performance. A study in Saudi Arabia found university students have lower GPAs, higher absenteeism rates, and more academic warnings if they smoke.

This may not be applicable in Wales, but other UK studies have shown smoking to be associated with lower educational attainment in secondary schools. It may be people who struggle more at university start smoking as a coping mechanism or there could be a confounding factor. For example, poor overall health could be linked to both smoking and problems in education.

Social factors also have a huge impact on smoking. This is partially why it was banned in public places in 2007, as it being constantly present in people’s lives makes them more likely to start. Professor Graham Moore, Director of Social Sciences at Cardiff University, said: “When you grow up with it, where smoking is the norm, you are much more likely to take it up yourself.” Data from Cardiff students supports this, as smokers usually started before attending university, with some quitting and others continuing.

Furthermore, all smokers reported that people in their social circle at university shared the habit. They did not have any non-smoking friends. This lends credence to Moore’s suggestion that social environment is crucial to whether or not people smoke.

While smoking had no impact on whether or not students would befriend someone, it did make a difference when it came to romantic relationships. A sizable minority of non-smokers (38%) expressed they would be unwilling to date a smoker. Since Wales introduced Smoke Free Premises Regulations, Cardiff University has made efforts to reduce smoking around campus.

Current policy states ‘smoking is not permitted in or on any university premises’. However, it is not unusual for smoking to take place in these spaces, particularly outside university buildings. These rules also don’t apply to e-cigarettes.

Notably, Cardiff students considered vaping to be less harmful to their health than drinking alcohol or smoking cigarettes. This could be related to stricter laws regarding smoking. While the number of smokers has decreased in the last 18 years, young people still take up the habit, despite being aware of the risks to their health.

This could be attributed to the ongoing mental health crisis in the UK, as well as other stressors like the cost of living and struggling at university. Although it is difficult to pin down cause and effect when it comes to smoking, it is unlikely Wales will be smoke free by 2030 without any serious policy changes.