Kyiv’s defence against the illegal fullscale invasion by Russian forces will reach its fourth year in February. Over these years, international pressure has grown, demanding a settlement at a crucial moment in this conflict. As the conflict has stagnated without a clear victor, global powers have pushed for a diplomatic resolution to limit human, material, and economic loss.
The international community, once unified, is now split. One side advocating to prolong the fighting at huge cost, the other calling for a deal which falls short of Kyiv’s hopes: Donald Trump’s 28-point plan. At the core of the recent urgency to find resolution, is Trump’s ultimatum, forcing Zelenskyy to accept his 28-point plan or face withdrawal of US funding.
Zelenskyy described the US president’s threats as either losing dignity, or risking losing a key partner. We must ask, what does the deal look like to cause such a reaction? The proposal includes Ukraine accepting “territorial realities”, allowing Russia to keep control of the lands it has taken through invasion.
Consequently, regions such as Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk would belong to Russia. Trump’s plan would cap Ukrainian armed forces to 600,000 personnels, block Ukraine’s admission to the world’s largest defence organisation NATO, and would prohibit NATO from stationing any troops in Ukraine. This places Kyiv’s defence in an incredibly vulnerable position.
To add to Zelenskyy’s “loss of dignity”, the plan will reintegrate Russia into the global economy. Zelenskyy described Trump’s demand to accept the plan by Thursday as “one of the most difficult moments in our history”.This all raises a crucial question, why do Trump’s threats carry such weight? Throughout the war, the United States has remained the backbone of Ukraine’s war effort, providing advanced weapons such as the artillery rocket system HIMARS and anti-aircraft system Patriot. 45% of Ukraine’s military funding has come from the US, and a similarly large 35% of total funding has come from the US.
This all totals to €115 billion being sent to Ukraine over the four years of war. However, the idea Trump commonly voices that “America is carrying the burden” simply does not hold. While the US spends the most in terms of cash, many nations contribute a far larger share of their GDP.
Denmark has spent 3.39%, Estonia 3.27%, and Germany 1.02%, compared to the United States’ 0.56%. Nevertheless, in raw financial terms, no country comes close to matching the scale of American support, a reality giving Washington’s threats undeniable weight. These threats are not only statements either; earlier in the year, Trump froze all military aid to Ukraine immediately for about a week.
Partnered with statements to the press such as “if he doesn’t like it, he should just keep fighting, I guess”, it is clear Trump is ever willing to withdraw funding entirely. European leaders are now scrambling to react to US pressures, working around the clock to put together an alternative proposal to the US-led 28-point plan. Zelenskyy’s assertion to not betray Ukraine has been reiterated by European leaders.
Keir Starmer stressed the need to find a solution that meets Ukraine’s needs: “All matters about Ukraine must be determined, in the end, by Ukraine.” At the G20 summit, boycotted by both Trump and Putin, world leaders reinforced the importance of cooperation within conflict resolution. They made clear that elements of the 28-point plan relating to NATO and the European Union need approval from Europe. President Macron agreed, stating the plan “cannot simply be an American proposal”.
European officials now head to Geneva, drafting a deal that will favour Ukraine and Europe, while keeping Moscow in check. In my view, Ukraine will be deeply affected by Washington’s ultimatum, not only in the immediate crisis but in the longterm picture. I believe Kyiv will increasingly seek financial and strategic support elsewhere, as this plan has likely damaged trust in the United States as a dependable partner.
Trump’s impulsive actions may strain relationships with Europe, isolating the United States. It is clear the plan has polarised the globe. As deadlines loom and pressure rises, Ukraine must weigh survival against dignity, navigating a fast-moving diplomatic storm where Trump’s demands shape the stakes and Europe scrambles to respond.