With the Senedd elections taking place on the 7th of May, polling is increasingly showing the election as a race between Plaid Cymru and Reform. ITV’s September polling shows a near even split between these parties, 30% to 29% respectively, compared to the incumbent Welsh Labour’s 14%. This would break the stranglehold on Welsh politics that Labour has enjoyed ever since devolution in 1999.
However, we may also see something that hasn’t happened in the Senedd, a hung parliament, as a majority may be unattainable for all parties. So, what would one of these outcomes mean for Wales? Plaid Cymru finally becomes the Party of Wales.
A Plaid victory would mean a more active Senedd, as they aim to gain increased devolved power. However, an unpopular Westminster Labour government may be unwilling to accommodate this if it is seen as damaging to their electoral fortunes, with the Labour conference demonstrating that panic is already starting to spread due to their low polling figures. We can be certain that during Plaid’s tenure, they would throw the blame on Welsh Labour and Westminster for many of the problems Wales faces.
This conflict would become a staple of future interactions. We can expect to see fights regarding issues such as HS2 funding and the decision to keep Scunthorpe’s steel works running, but not Port Talbot’s. What we won’t see however is an independence referendum, with Plaid ditching the policy for their first term in power.
Reform gains real power for the first time. For a party that isn’t left wing, let alone one that is far right, winning in Wales may have seemed like an alien concept until recently. Yet Reform faces a very real prospect of forming a government, all whilst not yet naming their leader in Wales (if they even decide to do so, it is not out of the question that Farage refuses to name a leader).
Wales would become a playground for Reform to trial out its policies in preparation for winning their real goal of Westminster. Policies such as the 20mph zones and the planned expansion of MSs would be scrapped - not out of evidence-based reasoning, but because they go against Reform’s ideological world view. The reopening of coal mines and the Port Talbot steel works are also policies that Farage has suggested will be enacted.
However, like many policies promised by Reform, this seems more symbolic than feasible. No party achieves the required 49 seats to form a majority. This is what the ITV polling predicts.
If this holds true, the possible outcome for the next government becomes more unclear. This would mean that Welsh Labour would become the kingmaker in theory, able to push either Reform or Plaid into power with a coalition government. However, there will be no world in which Labour and Reform form a coalition government, with both too ideologically far apart and both fighting for Westminster.
Therefore, we either have a hung parliament, or a Plaid led coalition with Labour, a reverse of the 2007 Labour led One Wales coalition. It’s clear UK Labour needs to stop treating Welsh voters’ support as a bygone conclusion. Labour’s complacency is leading to their most reliable voting block abandoning them.
Cooperation between Westminster and Welsh Labour is essential to stop this, yet this isn’t happening with Eluned Morgan and Starmer who are reportedly not on speaking terms. Labour will face a tough battle to get re-elected in Westminster, the solution to this will have to involve regaining the trust of Welsh voters.