On Super Saturday, the most important match in Wales’ Six Nations campaign goes ahead. A resurgent side, under temporary head coach Matt Sherratt of Cardiff Rugby, Wales will battle an England side full of confidence and power. Having beaten Italy emphatically, alongside taking dogged wins over the Scots and French, Steve Borthwick’s side are, to the naked eye at least, clear favourites. But what should a realistic expectation look like for this weekend?

Firstly, let’s look at the breakdown. England’s main breakdown threats are Maro Itoje, Ben Earl, and Tom Curry. All three are highly effective jackals, as well as superb at securing their own ball. Alongside them, the likes of Will Stuart and Ellis Genge are so important to clearing potential steals, and their workrate is incredible. All this culminates in a quick ball, so that the first receiver can start the dynamic backline running. Marcus Smith and Fin Smith are both perfect at this. Both have their own take on how they execute this play, but it ends with very, very similar results—beautiful tries.

Take, for example, the Tommy Freeman score against Italy. A well-worked, intelligent play from a rapid backline, as well as handy kicking from Elliot Daly. Furthermore, England’s scrum is one of the most solid in the Northern Hemisphere, a proper threat if not well matched. Both Fin Smith and Marcus Smith are accurate off the tee, and both their styles of play can beat some of the best.

When England have Fin Smith marshalling them, they play very similar to Northampton Saints, a lot of high kicking (with quite a bit from scum half Alex Mitchell), and dynamic interplay. When under Marcus Smith, England look a lot more like Harlequins, with more of a running style, less kicking and far more quick ball from set pieces (like the scrum) to gain meterage.

But how does this compare to Wales? The boys in red are certainly the underdogs. This will be their third (and final) match under Matt Sherratt, who was brought in to replace the failing and outdated style of play Warren Gatland forced his side to use.

Wales look far more motivated now than they did at the start of this campaign. Although they are still yet to break their six-match losing streak, there is always a chance. Signs of improvement were immediate in the Ireland fixture, taking the current champions all the way to the end, and against Scotland, although suffering a messy first half, they were on fire in the second. Blair Murray for me was the standout player, and a potential British and Irish Lions shout if he continues his form.

Wales’ scrum is solid, if not occasionally misguided, and their breakdown work isn’t too shabby. Kicking accuracy both on and off the tee is what will make the mark. If Gareth Anscombe kicks too far or too narrow like he did in the first half against Scotland, it will give England too much of an attacking platform. Wales need to be resilient, smart, and keep their cool if they want a chance to win. Their attack in fractured and broken play has similarities to both France and Italy, a bit of flair and flamboyance that we haven’t seen in a while. Wales also need to keep their discipline in check and not commit silly mistakes. Any kind of card could be fatal.

So, who will take the victory, and what will it mean for the final standings? Well firstly, England have to win (and Scotland have to beat France) in order to have a chance of winning the title, and a four-try bonus point would be highly preferable. If Wales managed to win or score at least a four-try bonus point and a losing bonus point (provided Italy claim no points when they face Ireland), they would jump to fifth in the standings, avoiding the wooden spoon.

Now here’s where I make the big call, who do I believe will win? The key part of that phrase is “will”. To me, it would be incredibly poetic for Wales to break their losing run by beating England at home, and I could for sure see it happen. But will it? England, although having piled on the tries against Italy, were not totally comfortable at points, especially in broken play. However, is this enough to say Wales will win because they can capitalise on the broken play? No. My most “realistic” prediction is that England will win 35–24, but as a neutral I’d love to see some drama. It’s so sad to see the Six Nations end once more, but this match sure will prove why we love it so much.

Wales vs. England is being played in Principality Stadium, in Cardiff on Saturday, with its kickoff at 16:45. The match will be shown on BBC 1 and BBC iPlayer.