As the war in Ukraine continues in its 3rd year, Russia seems to be mounting a covert operation to evade western sanctions and launch hybrid attacks against European nations. In 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine, in response the west placed heavy sanctions on Russia and continue to do so to cause disruption to the Russian war effort. G7 countries swiftly implemented price caps on all Russian gas imports to limit Russian earnings from oil exports and limited the flow of oil.

From this, the Russian Shadow fleet was identified in 2022, estimates suggest between 1,100 - 1,400 ships are involved in the fleet, with around 400 of these ships being used for crude oil. The main goal of this shadow fleet is to evade western sanctions and keep Russia’s oil revenue afloat. But why can’t countries just stop the boats?

Many of the ships within the fleet disable their AIS (Automatic Identification System) to avoid tracking, making it harder for maritime security forces to identify and intercept. Ships also conduct ship-to-ship transfers in international waters, making it much harder for the blame to be pinpointed to just one ship. The Russian shadow fleet has been involved in numerous events that have ramped up tensions in the region, just recently French authorities intercepted and boarded the Boracay, an oiltanker that was linked to Russia’s shadow fleet.

French authorities at the time of writing are also investigating the ships role within the drone incursions in Denmark that disrupted flights and forced the country’s government to halt all flights, showcasing that the shadow fleets could potentially be being used for offensive operations in Europe. Furthermore, on the 25th December 2024, the tanker Eagle S was suspected of damaging the Estlink 2 undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia by dragging its anchor across the seabed, marking a significant escalation in Russia’s hybrid attacks on its neighbours. Hybrid attacks from ships like Tanker Eagle S have caused major power outages and disrupted communications in the Baltic region.

This has led to an increase in the presence of maritime security forces in the region with both Finland and Sweden launching investigations into cable severing in the Baltic Sea. These hybrid attacks in turn have major security implications for the European Community, as undersea cables carry over 95% of the world internet, which if damaged can cause major disruption to energy grids, financial systems, and even military headquarters. Not only is it a threat to infrastructure but Russia is able to keep a constant covert presence in strategic maritime areas, causing major problems to Russia’s adversaries.

Russia is able to keep a constant covert presence in strategic maritime areas

The Fleets operations have caused the militarisation of maritime security as the U.K leads operation “Nordic Warden” using AI technology and satellite tracking systems to increase awareness and create a deterrent. The Shadow fleet has created significant economic implications, as the fleet blatantly ignores western sanctions, Russia continues to produce billions of dollars annually which funds its war effort in Ukraine. Furthermore, 70% of its seaborne oil exports come from the shadow fleet itself, meaning Russia’s ability to bypass western restrictions has improved.

The transfer of Crude oil through covert passages distorts global oil pricing and disrupts supply chains by introducing uncertainty to the market. Countries that are targeted by the shadow fleet are also having to invest heavily into their maritime security forces and naval forces to be able to deal with the threat to sovereignty by the shadow fleet. For example, Denmark has announced a new “naval plan” to create 26 new navy and surveillance vessels, which enables them to patrol and secure their maritime borders but to also respond to potential oil spills.

Despite western sanctions and pressure to disrupt Russia’s war effort, Russia has chosen not to stay quiet.