Despite becoming the first former US President to testify as a defendant in over a century this week, it is still looking very likely that Donald Trump will win the Republican Party primaries and put up a strong fight against President Biden, who is hoping to be re-elected. Trump has been testifying in a New York courtroom as part of a civil fraud trial, just one of a number of charges he is facing. Justice Engoron, who is overseeing the case, has already ruled that the Trump Organisation did commit fraud by inflating the value of properties and other assets.
The purpose of this trial is therefore to determine the penalties he will face, with prosecutors seeking a $250m fine and strict business restrictions. Trump appears to be using his testimony as an opportunity to further his presidential campaign, with Justice Engoron repeatedly asking Trump to stick to answering the questions instead of making speeches, reminding him that “this is not a political rally”. It is perhaps of little surprise then that this trial, and the other 78 felony charges he is facing across 3 criminal cases, seem to be doing no damage to Trump’s reputation and popularity against Republican voters.
Recent polls highlight that Trump is in a strong position to win the Republican primaries, with him being put at 30 points ahead of the next most popular candidate, Florida Governor Robert DeSantis. DeSantis’ campaign also seems to be losing momentum, with his biggest donor publicly declaring that he is thinking about switching support to Trump. Robert Bigelow, who has donated over $20m to the DeSantis campaign, described Trump as the “strongest commander” that DeSantis would struggle to beat.
Polling also shows that if Trump were to win the Republic nomination, as looks likely, and face Biden in the 2024 election, Trump is currently the favourite to win. A CNN poll of registered voters saw Trump leading with 49 percent compared to Biden’s 45 percent. Perhaps the most troubling information for the current President is that Trump’s polling is up amongst voters under 35, a previous stronghold for Democrats, with 48 percent saying that they would vote for him.
The felony charges Trump is facing in cases concerning his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election result, and the retention of classified documents, mean that Trump could be sentenced to prison time. However, he has made it clear that he is willing to campaign from behind bars and the US Constitution does not stop those with criminal convictions from running for office. Therefore, Trump could find himself in the extraordinary position of not being able to vote in the election, while being on the ballot and perhaps even winning.