It is ‘well within the realms of possibility’ that in 2026 Reform could form a new government in the Senedd; that’s according to the party’s Welsh spokesperson Oliver Lewis. Under the new proportional representation voting system which will emerge in April 2026 and expand the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 MS’s from 16 enlarged constituencies, Oliver Claims that Reform could win anywhere from 20 to ‘hopefully 40 seats.’ Such a gain would see them become the largest party in the Senedd. From a Reform perspective there is every reason to be so optimistic in Wales. The party won 16.9% of the vote in the 2024 general election, equating to 223,018 votes and came second in 13 constituencies. Despite their unmistakable popularity, because of the UK’s first past the post system Reform won no seats in Wales. However, the new reformed proportional representation system would allow them to finally benefit and represent their growing support. In light of Lewis s optimism Reform UK still do not have a recognised party leader in Wales and instead will look towards the popularity of Nigel Farage to bring them success in 2026. Lewis claimed that ‘Nigel is far more popular than the leaders of the other parties in Wales’ and speaking at the party’s conference in November last year, Farage himself said that the Senedd election would be his party’s ‘biggest priority’ in 2026. With YouGov polling Reform at 23% in Wales – just 1pp behind the largest party Plaid Cymru – it is impossible to dismiss Farage’s optimism as mere fancy.

Since Farage’s comments at his party’s conference in November there have emerged question marks regarding the longevity of Reform’s rise. On January 5th Elon Musk posted on X publicly calling for Reform to look for a new leader and claiming that Farage ‘doesn’t have what it takes’ to lead the party. It came after Farage looked to distant himself from Musk due to his increasing support for far-right activist and criminal Tommy Robinson, who is currently serving an 18-month sentence for contempt of court. Only weeks earlier had there been widespread reports stating that Mr Musk would be prepared to donate as much as £100 Million to the party by the next General Election, with Farage posing with Musk for a social media photo in Mar-a-Lago. Ten Reform UK councillors from Derbyshire also resigned last month in protest against Farage’s ‘increasingly autocratic manner’ of management, claiming that the party had ‘lost its direction’ since he resumed leadership in 2024.

As a populist politician leading a populist political party, any publicity for Farage would be seen as good publicity and despite claims of instability there is a quiet sense of inevitability for the party’s success in the 2026 election. One anonymous Labour MP spoke candidly about the threat of Reform and the tactics they use. ‘It’s like Brexit all over again, isn’t it? Kicking back against the system[...] the Reform thing is real. We need to seriously, seriously, wake up to it.’ The MP went on to predict that in areas like Llanelli, where Reform came second by only several hundred votes in July, they are ‘are absolutely doomed’. Much of Reform’s manifesto is broad and unspecific yet crucially, and perhaps successfully, it is fundamentally contrarian at its core. The two biggest controversies so far of Labour’s leadership have been around the winter fuel payments and the farmer’s inheritance tax and with a rural and an older population Reform will undoubtably benefit from discontent amongst these demographics. In addition to this, the heart of the party’s popularity in July was found in areas of South Wales which still feel left behind by the legacy of 1980s Thatcherism, and this support is a reflection of the anger of communities in Wales which feel neglected by the political establishment.

Across the globe in 2024 incumbent political parties were punished at the polls and Reform would look to build on this trend, toppling 26 years of Welsh Labour governance. With many in Wales and the UK feeling increasingly dissociated with any political party, the success of Reform’s populist approach with simple answers to complex issues and broad commitments in 2026 could be seen by many as a dress rehearsal for the next general election and will surely be watched closely by those in Westminster and Downing Street.