Nigel Farage has vowed that Reform UK will “change the status quo” in Wales and has promised that “fresh thinking” will characterise the party’s programme ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. The Reform leader insists that the party aims to give voters an alternative to what he has described as “decades of complacency” in the devolved government, as Welsh Labour faces growing pressure from Plaid Cymru and Reform. Welsh Labour has led the Senedd since its establishment in 1999, ensuring its strong influence over Welsh policy.
However, if recent polling is any indication, the political balance that has been in place for over twenty years seems to be shifting. Both Plaid Cymru and Reform are gaining momentum, and there are some surveys to suggest that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives in some parts of the country. Farage believes that this is an indication of people’s desire for “something new—a government on the side of people working and people having jobs”.
But, what would Reform mean for Wales? This is a question that lacks a clear answer. Despite Reform’s growing popularity, the party has not yet outlined any specific policy commitments for Wales.
Farage has admitted that the party’s manifesto for the devolved government is still “in development” and has said that there is a “full-time team” in place working on policies relevant to the current Welsh political landscape. This would be a first for the party, which in the past has prioritised the politics of Westminster. This absence of clear policies within the party has left Reform UK vulnerable to criticism.
In particular, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has warned that it will be “in the interest of Wales” to ensure that Reform’s influence in the Senedd remains limited. However, Plaid Cymru itself is standing on a platform of change, placing the party as another alternative to Welsh Labour, but one that is rooted in Welsh values, rather than simply being a party of protest. Recent defections to the Reform movement have also added to the increasing momentum of the party.
Laura Anne Jones, Member of the Senedd for South Wales East, left the Welsh Conservatives to join Reform in July this year, and she became the first MS to make the move. But what led her to do so? She talked of the “frustration” that she felt at the state of Welsh politics.
Her defection was described by Farage as a “major step forward” as well as a sign that “the tide is turning”. All of this comes at a time of change for the devolved government in Wales. The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 will come into effect for the 2026 election, expanding the Welsh Parliament from 60 to 96 members, as well as introducing a proportional representation voting system.
These reforms are intended to modernise Welsh democracy and improve the representation of the parliament, but they will also allow new opportunities for smaller parties such as Reform and Plaid to gain influence. Farage’s message of “fresh thinking” strikes a chord with voters in Wales frustrated by the status quo—particularly when it comes to the economy and the NHS—and with those who are looking for a change from Labour’s long-established rule. But until a concrete manifesto is reached, Reform is likely to face criticism and questions about what their promise of change will look like in practice, with little substance to their credibility until their manifesto is shared with the Welsh public it is attempting to win over.
As the 2026 Senedd election looms, it seems that Wales and its government are heading towards a time of change. Welsh Labour is facing scrutiny following more than two decades of power, Plaid Cymru stands on a platform of change centred on issues of Welsh identity, and Reform is gearing up to shake up the system. But we will have to wait and see what it really means for Farage’s party to change the “status quo” in Wales.