Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has rejected a referendum on Welsh independence if his party is successful in next May’s Senedd elections. Speaking to Nick Robinson on BBC Radio 4 ahead of Plaid Cymru’s annual conference, Ap Iorwerth said “this isn’t an independence referendum coming up next year”, following up with “there won’t be a referendum in the next five years at all”. These remarks echo his previous claim made to BBC WalesCast in May when the Ynys Môn MS rejected the idea of an independence referendum, instead wishing to highlight the issues of health, education, economic growth, and “getting to grips with child poverty”.
The party, currently polling narrowly ahead of Reform UK according to a recent YouGov/ ITV Wales opinion poll, have put their immediate focus on addressing more traditional and immediate devolved issues as they seek to form a government not led by Labour for the first time in the history of Welsh devolution next May. A party political broadcast, released in time for their annual conference in Swansea, focused on issues including the NHS and “backing Welsh businesses and local jobs” while emphasising a two-horse race between the left-wing civic nationalist party and Reform UK as both parties seek to win over disaffected Labour voters. Plaid Cymru also announced a new free childcare policy for all children under four, dedicated library in every primary school, and extra pay for teachers to stay in Wales, alongside a 127-page economic plan published earlier this year.
This change in priorities marks a sharp contrast with Plaid Cymru’s former leader, Adam Price, who promised to hold an independence referendum within their first term had the party won the 2021 Senedd elections. The former leader pushed the idea of Welsh independence to the forefront of the Welsh nationalist party’s agenda and made it a committed manifesto pledge for the first time in a Senedd election. Following Price’s resignation in May 2023, Rhun ap Iorwerth, who was elected as Price’s successor unopposed, has mellowed the messaging around independence as the party seeks to win over former Labour voters.
This change in priorities marks a sharp contrast with Plaid Cymru’s former leader
However, Plaid Cymru have tried to ease concerns among some party members that the party is abandoning its dream of an independent Welsh state by noting it is still a long-term ambition, albeit not an immediate priority. Ap Iorwerth, in his recent 46-minute-long conference speech stated that a Plaid Cymru government would “kickstart the national debate on independence” and promised to “build on the excellent work of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales by establishing a Standing Commission”. The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, reporting in January 2024, listed independence as one of three “viable” options for Wales in the future alongside a federal model and “enhanced devolution”.
Plaid Cymru, alongside the Green Party, remain the only major parties in Wales to support Welsh independence despite a surge in support in recent years, increasing from 17% in 2018 to as high as 41% (excluding don’t knows) as recently as April this year. The same Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll taken on behalf of YesCymru, the grassroots campaign for Welsh Independence, found that (when don’t knows are excluded) 53% of 18–24-year-olds and an astonishing 72% of 25–34-year-olds in Wales would vote ‘Yes’ if a referendum were held tomorrow.