This Christmas many of us will have found ourselves in pubs where mention of Reform UK is rife.

These conversations often lead to the criticism that rather than a new party, Reform are a bunch of failed Conservatives. While previous defections by Lee Anderson, Nadine Dorries and Nadhim Zahawi give this argument merit, it’s been cemented by the botched defection and subsequent firing of failed Conservative leadership candidate Robert Jenrick. So why did the Tories tell Jenrick to jog on?

While rumours had been swirling for some time, they were confirmed when his resignation speech was left out for all to see by Jenrick’s team. When this was discovered, Kemi Badenoch had no choice other than to remove the whip. Like in the worst type of Cathays romance, the Conservative party had to dump Jenrick before he dumped them.

This was especially the case following the member for Newark’s history of jockeying for Badenoch’s job, with a supposed WhatsApp-based coup last year. The leader of the opposition is also currently boasting her highest ever approval ratings, making dismissing her biggest rival less risky than it might have been last year. Reform and Jenrick’s mishandling of the defection further sells the ‘failed Tories’ argument.

As does the fact that Jenrick was complicit in the Conservative mismanagement of this country that helped propel Reform to their current polling highs. Jenrick was even the minister for immigration under the last government. So, does his defection really help his new party?

After Reform’s first drop in polling, maybe this is exactly what they need. Jenrick was one of the most popular Conservative figures, winning nearly half of the Conservative party member’s votes in 2024’s leadership contest meaning it is possible that his defection becomes the final push needed for many Conservative voters to make the jump to Reform as well. Despite thinking Farage would ‘struggle to run a 5-a-side team’ when he was still wearing a Conservative rosette, Jenrick claims he has no ambitions to run for the leadership of his new party.

But with his history of loyalty (or lack thereof) do we really believe this? Perhaps Badenoch’s rising popularity having ending any talk of her being replaced before suggesting she won’t last to fight the next general election scared Jenrick? Polling indicates a Conservative-Reform coalition has a very real chance of being our next government. But as Reform are set to be the senior partner in the coalition, they would decide the Prime Minister. It’s feasible that the top job wouldn’t go to Farage though.

The Reform UK leader’s polarising nature may see him subjected to the Geert Wilders treatment. The Dutch right winger, whose coalition was contingent on the agreement that he wouldn’t be PM to appease the junior parties of the coalition. If the Conservatives were to demand such a deal who would Reform deploy as PM?

They’d probably choose the second most known figure in their party, who is also well liked by Conservative voters and politicians. That’s right, Robert Jenrick. While this could sound farfetched, Jenrick is one of few Reform politicians with ministerial experience and by the time the next election is contested Jenrick could have as long as three years under his belt as a Reform MP.

In this saga where MPs are acting like they’re in an episode of ‘The Traitors,’ time can only tell how things will unfold and whether Jenrick will help or hinder Reform UK. Readers shouldn’t be surprised if we see Prime Minister Jenrick and Deputy Prime Minister Badenoch in 2029 though. But with the right-wing parties of Westminster behaving like a fresher’s friend group with failed 5-a-side plans and messy break-ups, such a government is a scary prospect.

However, with all this in mind one question emerges above all others: would the Conservative party accept such a deal, or would they tell Jenrick to jog on?