Since the start of the year, discussions about the election felt different to how they did in 2023. The election is within touching distance now, meaning questions about whether Labour can maintain their double-digit poll lead and whether the Tories will have a new leader prior to the election, will soon have answers. But when will it occur?
At the beginning of the year, the Prime Minister came under increasing pressure to answer this question. In accordance with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act, the last date an election can be called is 28th January 2025. However, Sunak ruled out a 2025 election at a gathering of journalists in December meaning an election will occur this year.
When asked by the BBC in January, Sunak said it was his “working assumption” that an election would occur in the second half of the year. This flattened debates that an election would be held in the usual May time, with some believing an election could occur concurrently with local elections. However, Sunak’s wording in his answer doesn’t completely quell this speculation, suggesting that he’ll call the election at the point when he believes his party will be most likely to win it.
Additionally, this month the Prime Minister is facing two by-elections in previously Conservative held constituencies. One in Wellingborough and one in Kingswood near Bristol. The results of these elections will weigh heavily on the Prime Minister’s mind in the run up to the election, as it’ll be less easy for him to dismiss Conservative defeats as “mid-term blues”.
Conservative losses will also heighten speculation that a Labour victory in the election is becoming more likely. Therefore, if Sunak loses these byelections, he’ll likely delay the election until the end of the year to allow for as much time as possible to rehabilitate his party and hope for Labour to fall in the polls. In my opinion, a November election is looking increasingly more likely, as an election is unlikely to occur during Parliament’s summer recess (beginning on 23rd July) and a November election would allow for the parties to fundraise during the party conference season in October.
It’s important to remember though, that the US Presidential election is also due in November with UK security personnel warning of security and misinformation risks if the two happen too close together. The last times this occurred was in 1964, at the height of the Cold War following JFK’s assassination, and in 1992 when there were six months between them. With all this in mind, I’d bet that this year’s election will occur on 21st November.
This would allow for two weeks between the US and UK elections and just about avoid potential campaigning in the depths of winter in December. But it all depends on how the Conservatives and Labour perform throughout the year.