The most important elections happening this year take place on November 3rd.
Why? They could see a major blow to Trump’s power.
This is because Trump’s Republicans are fearing a colossal shift of power in the US Congress. Similar to the UK parliament, Congress has 2 chambers, the House and Senate, who both work together as relatively equal partners in law making. All of the US House and a third of the Senate are up for election, both of which are currently controlled by the GOP, meaning the Democrats are throwing everything they have into taking back Congress.
These elections will decide how much of a restraint Trump has in governing.
While Trump is a big fan of using executive orders or law by decree, he still needs Congress to pass his tax cuts and more major legislation.
The first of the two is the House of Representatives, made up of 435 members, these reflect small constituencies that generally match the population and will therefore trend closely with national popularity. As Trump is currently extremely unpopular, thanks to the war and high grocery prices, the House is likely to flip to the Democrats.
Trump, knowing this, attempted to get certain republican led states to gerrymander their borders, called ‘redistricting’. This is where constituency boundaries are re-drawn to give better chances of a win to a certain party, especially in swing seats. Some Democrat run states have tried to counter gerrymander, but to much less success.
Despite this, estimates predict the Democrats will take back the House and Trump’s efforts are likely to be too little to stop the momentum the Democrats have.
The Senate is a harder battle, while Trump remains unpopular, only a third of the senate seats are up for election. This means Democrats will have to succeed in red heartland states that Trump carried in 2024 by double digits, all while still defending vulnerable seats.
Luckily for the Democrats, they have recruited largely good public speakers and popular figures. Take for example ruby red Texas, the state of gunslinging, ranch going Cowboys has become a tossup because the Democrats managed to put James Talarico on the ballot. He is a Democrat who is a big fan of using the bible to push for more state influence in keeping drug prices low, funding education all while still being strong on the border. Unsurprisingly, using the bible in Texas is very popular, letting him take a small poll lead.
It is now the most expensive senate race in history; funded largely by Elon Musk pouring 190 million dollars into covering the wounds of the Republicans nominating scandal ridden Ken Paxton. Similar stories are unfolding all over the nation in states such as: Alaska, Ohio, and Kansas.
Ideally the Democrats want over 50 seats. Having 50 seats would mean that Vice president JD Vance will tiebreak votes meaning they need 4 more but this road is hard.
The Senate flipping would be a major Democratic success since they would be able to deny Trump’s appointments to various positions in the cabinet and the Supreme Court. The latter is massively important to the future of American politics for decades.
So if you support or oppose President Trump pay attention on Tuesday and see him claim victory or maybe crash out a little.