The National Executive Committee’s blocking of Burnhams bid to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election was received by many negatively, former shadow chancellor McDonnell describing it as “factionalism gone wild” and Labour MP Richard Burgon stating that it was “weak leadership” and “will only deepen the crisis the party is in.” However, the decision should be seen as an important moment that shows Starmer’s commitment towards remaining control of the PM job and his party. The by-election, scheduled for the 26th of this month and triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, was seen by Andy Burnham as a way to get back into parliament.

What would normally have been a shoe in for the ‘King of the North’ because of his massive popularity was blocked by the NEC in an 8 to 1 vote, with Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell being the only member of the board voting in his favour, and with Kier Starmer being amongst those voting against. The reason given by the NEC was that his resignation of Manchester mayor would cost the party and taxpayers unnecessary expenses in the subsequent mayoral election, and risk losing the mayoral position to Reform. However, the real reason is to block a candidate who clearly has his eyes set on number 10.

Burnham’s comments at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool in September were clearly designed as a jab towards Starmer’s government, and fuelled speculation that he was mounting a leadership challenge. If he was allowed to stand, and potentially win the by-election, he couldn’t be counted as a Starmer ally, and it might have only been a matter of time until he launched a bit to oust the PM and secure the top job for himself. Therefore, it was clearly right to block Burnham.

Starmer promised a return to stable leadership, and not the merry-go-round of PMs that we saw with the final years of the Conservatives, this decision will help fulfil this promise. This will however make the by-election harder to win for the Labour Party, infighting is never a good look and will make voters think twice about re-electing a Labour MP in Gorton and Denton. Having been a Labour stronghold for many years, polling suggests that Labour could lose this seat to either Reform, who hold a polling lead on 32%, or the Greens, who trail Labour’s 26% by four points.

Losing this seat will further inflame the already angry Labour MPs who disagreed with the NEC’s ruling, a supposed 50 MPs have already written to Starmer to encourage the NEC to change their decision and will further add speculation on whether Starmer’s time is running out to fix the polling deficit to Reform. This upcoming by-election might be the most important one under Starmer’s tenure as leader, the result might tip the Labour party towards seeking a new leader, so as Starmer’s allies and enemies hold their breath awaiting the result, the NECs decision might have political ramifications that go far beyond Andy Burnham and might decide Starmer’s entire political career.