Ukraine’s president, Voldymyr Zelenksyy, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, were swift to congratulate Donald Trump on his recent election victory—though for very different reasons. Zelenskyy in apprehension, hoping that flattery would do better than an appeal for increased military assistance, and Netanyahu with cautious optimism, looking forward to Trump letting him do what he wants in the Middle East but mindful of his pledge to “stop the wars”.

Russia–Ukraine

Although declining to share further details, Trump has claimed that he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within a day and before his inauguration in January: “They both have weaknesses and they both have strengths, and within 24 hours that war will be settled. It’ll be over”.

There is a possibility that Trump would block any further assistance to Ukraine, and according to Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, the Trump administration would aim for Russia and Ukraine to freeze fighting along existing front lines. The line of demarcation would “become heavily fortified so Russia doesn’t invade again”.

This would not bode well for Zelenskyy— he has repeatedly rejected making territorial concessions, but by ceasing all military aid, Kyiv would have to cede to Moscow’s terms.

Europe

This would also not bode well for Europe, especially for members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump’s ambiguous relationship with Putin have caused NATO members to worry about the potential emboldening of Russia in the European context, with one European ambassador saying that it is not clear “whether [Trump] would seek a deal with [Vladimir] Putin on day one or whether he would drop a nuclear bomb on Moscow”.

During his first presidential term, Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance if his allies do not pay their fair share, frustrated that the US has bankrolled the bloc’s collective defence for decades. He took this further throughout his campaign trail, threatening that if NATO members did not increase their defence spending to at least 2% of GDP, he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want”. “You don’t pay your bills, you get no protection. It’s very simple.”

Israel

While there would have been more of the same of the Biden administration’s approach to Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon under Kamala Harris, former aides of Trump have said that he would be supportive of Israeli military campaigns, with most likely no strings attached for humanitarian concerns.

Once in office, one can also expect Trump to focus on normalising relations between Israel and other Gulf Arab nations under the Abraham Accords that began in his last term.

Iran

One of Trump’s tougher stances is towards Tehran. His decision to withdraw the US from the Iran Nuclear Deal during his first term was part of his “maximum pressure” campaign. Coupled with harsh sanctions, his aim was to push Iran to agree to ending both its nuclear programme and its destabilising actions through its regional proxies.

This is another reason why Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Iran and its proxies, with potential direct involvement of US forces.

China

While Trump seems to have an affinity for kingpin leader President Xi Jinping, describing him as “brilliant” for ruling with an “iron first”, he has always had a chaotic approach to China, plunging the two superpower economies into a trade war during his first term. He is likely to ramp this up and continue challenging China on Taiwan and trade.

Last month, the president-elect said that he would convince China not to invade Taiwan by telling President Xi Jinping he would impose extremely high tariffs, or would shut down trade altogether.

Indeed, Trump says he will pursue protectionist trade policies, planning to impose a blanket tariff of at least 10% on all imports and tariff rates as high as 60% on Chinese goods.

Conclusion

The immediacy with which world leaders congratulated the president-elect is telling of the benefits and disadvantages that they see from Trump 2.0, with his first presidency characterised by his transactional “America First” outlook. With trade wars, the accommodation of and subtle or not-so-subtle reverence of autocrats, and his view of allies as a burden—judging them by their defence spending—the only thing certain about Trump’s foreign policy is the uncertainty he sows in both friends and foes alike.