August 2025 marked the centenary of Plaid Cymru. When the party began, it prioritised promotion of Welsh language, culture, and ‘self-government’ for Wales. Independence was not a priority when so much was yet to be achieved.
But in a time of increasing divisions in the United Kingdom, independence is seen as part of Plaid Cymru’s core. So why has the party’s leader said a Plaid Cymru government would not pursue an independence referendum in their first term, if elected next May? Rhun ap Iorwerth became leader of Plaid Cymru in 2023, and since then, has been driving Plaid in the direction of government.
After “terrific” General Election results in 2024, they are looking to go even further in the Senedd elections next May. YouGov polling data from September showed that Plaid are leading in the polls, though only marginally; just one percentage point behind is Reform UK. Welsh Labour, the party that has governed Wales since the dawn of devolution, and has won every election in Wales since 1922, is third, and their chances of continuing their reign look slimmer by the day.
This election is as fragile as it could be; Plaid Cymru are eager not to jeopardise their chances by calling for independence. “Independence is a journey”, according to Llŷr Gruffydd MS, and Plaid must build trust with the people of Wales before they can have discussions about a possible referendum. If independence is to happen, it needs to be done right; Plaid must promote open debate, and show what pro-Wales governance can look like, before any referendum. No matter how strongly you favour independence, the support isn’t there yet.
Polling conducted earlier this year by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed that 41% of voters would support independence in a referendum; excluding those who said, ‘don’t know’. Support is growing, and Rhun ap Iorwerth noted on the For Wales See Wales podcast that independence is a “live issue”. What Plaid Cymru must therefore focus on is ‘indy-curiousness’ to promote inclusive debate on a matter that would have seismic implications on the people of Wales and our standing in the world.
Plaid Cymru are being subject to exposure within British media in ways they have never seen before. In the run-up to the 2024 General Election, Rhun ap Iorwerth appeared on Good Morning Britain, where it was clear that the presenters did not understand Welsh issues. Earlier this month, ap Iorwerth’s leader’s speech at Plaid Cymru’s conference was broadcast in its entirety on BBC Radio 5 Live.
Plaid Cymru now have a platform in which they can share their plans for government
Plaid Cymru now have a platform in which they can share their plans for government. Support for independence is not at the levels Plaid Cymru would like, which is why it is vital that they focus on being a successful Welsh Government which, for now, remains part of the UK. Questions around independence will likely follow, but only if a Plaid government is willing to show the people of Wales what that future could look like.
Plaid Cymru want 2026 to be the dawn of a new era in Welsh politics. It is therefore imperative that they act as a government for the present, and the future. Focus on fixing the NHS and the economy now, to have discussions on independence in the future. ‘Indy-curiousness’ continues to grow; just consider how this may change again with a pro-independence government.
Plaid Cymru have made clear there will not be a referendum on independence in the first term. At the party conference, ap Iorwerth promised to “kick start the national debate on independence.” The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales concluded in 2024 that independence is a viable option, and Plaid hope that if elected in May, these discussions could become more widespread across Wales. Until then, Plaid Cymru must remain focused on delivering for the people of a Wales which, for the next five years at least, is part of the United Kingdom.