If, like me, you are in any way involved with Welsh politics, you’ve probably spent the last few weeks googling Dan Thomas. Reform’s new leader in Wales left everyone a little confused.

The need to pick a candidate out of the spotlight and away from controversy certainly played a role in Thomas’ appointment, but the absence of controversy did not last.

For months there was speculation as to who the leader of Reform in Wales could be. Would it be Laura Anne Jones MS? First MS to defect to Reform las summer? Or James Evans MS; recently kicked out of the Conservatives for a mitting to being in talks to join Reform (his defection announced shortly before Thomas’ unveiling).

The most recent, and most likely of the guesses would’ve been Jason O’Connell, a Torfaen councillor who fronted their latest party election broadcast and has spent the last few weeks on the media rounds.

It was not to be for Mr. O’Connell. Instead, they picked Mr. Thomas, who hasn’t lived in Wales for almost thirty years, and, if reporting is to be believed, still does not live in Wales now.

Nation Cymru revealed just days after his appointment that Mr. Thomas’ property is near Bath, not his native Blackwood.

Alun Davies MS noted that the leader in the UKIP era, Neil Hamilton, also did not live in Wales.

But not to worry, in gradually shifting west, the party would be on track to have a leader who lived in Wales by 2050.

Under the new rules however, anyone who stands for the Senedd must live in Wales, so it can be expected that Mr. Thomas’ permanent relocation is imminent.

Just like his soon-to-be Welsh colleagues in the Senedd (if polls are correct), Mr. Thomas is a former Tory.

Perhaps his appointment was because he’s been a member of Reform for slightly longer than Jones and Evans, defecting in June 2025, just a month before Ms. Jones. Did his party loyalty get him the top job?

Reform’s loss in Caerffili in October 2025 certainly impacted their campaign plans.

It was expected that if Llŷr Powell won that by-election, he would be leader, because Ms. Jones’ defection did not mean she was guaranteed to ever be elected as a Reform candidate.

In fact, because she is a regional Senedd member, she was elected as a Conservative, not individually, which prompted her former colleague, Janet Finch-Saunders WMS, to call for her resignation. If Powell was able to prove he could beat Mr. Caerphilly himself, Lindsay Whittle, the job was his.

But Mr. Caerphilly prevailed, paving the way for the polls we see today; an increasing Plaid Cymru lead and a deteriorating Reform.

Analysis by Wales Governance Centre’s Dr. Jac Larner attributes this to fewer respondents answering, ‘don’t know’, when asked who they intend to vote for in May.

Reform are the marmite of Welsh politics, you either love them or you hate them.

The compromise for the D’Hondt system over Single Transferrable Vote will play into Reform’s hands; they are nobody’s second choice.

They had to delay their leadership announcement for as long as possible, because regardless of who was chosen, everyone would have an opinion, not least the likes of Ms. Jones and Mr. Evans who were perhaps vying for this role themselves.

Tough to follow the memorable Nathan Gill, who you will recall has recently been sent to prison for accepting Russian bribes while a Member of the European Parliament.

Reform are still yet to announce any candidates.

It can be expected that Ms. Jones, Mr. Evans and Mr. Thomas will be on the lists, perhaps Llŷr Powell will even make a comeback.

Note that these candidates are concentrated in the south east, apart from Mr. Evans in Brychein og Tawe Nedd.

It benefits Reform to not win overall in Wales; the main prize would be Downing Street.

They could criticise the (expected) Plaid Cymru government whilst avoiding making any decisions themselves.

Reform needed an unblemished candidate for leader.

If Thomas’ only criticism was that he’s spent almost the last thirty years living in London, Reform would’ve taken that as a win.

He has denied claims that he lives in Bath, clarifying that he has a ‘property portfolio.’

His attempts to clear his name seemingly made things worse, when he mentioned that he moved back to Wales in 2024.

This meant that for a year the Barnet councillor lived in a different country to his constituents.

Whatever way you look at it, Mr. Thomas still has questions to answer, and over the coming months we will see leaders’ debates, more election broadcasts, and certainly more social media output, from everyone.