Late last month, Andy Burnham addressed the Labour Party conference with a speech that surprised even right-wing commentators with its vigour.
“Hope” was the buzz word focused on in Burnham’s speech. However, it was the second, more inconspicuous, use of “we” which bolstered audience support. But, is Burnham’s want for unity enough to keep the UK together?
The surge in the Labour Party’s popularity has been coined the ‘Burnham Bounce.’ PollCheck research shows that the party has risen from a low of 19.7% in July to a more respectable 27.6% in the latest polls. These impressive stats might have come as a surprise to Labour’s opposition.
After all, years of political uncertainty in the UK has created a culture of pessimistic, cynical voters who possess little to no faith that a PM could truly change anything. Yet, despite the disillusionment, Burnham flipped voters by giving them the feeling he described in his speech: hope. In many ways, this PM seems to give voters a lot of the things they didn’t get with Keir Starmer.
He appears authentic, strong-willed, and is delivering on changes, like capped bus fares, which the public can feel in their day-to-day lives. Voters can be impatient, and so small wins like these helped to generate support.
Today’s bolder Labour has proven to be successful thus far, though the ‘Burnham bounce’ can’t last forever. Despite opinion polls resulting in Labour’s favour, there remains lurking issues facing Burnham’s government coming from within the UK.
Leaders of Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Sinn Féin gathered on the 14th of September to sign ‘The Cardiff Agreement’: a document detailing each nation’s right to self-determination.
This means that Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales all have first ministers who want to leave the United Kingdom. For the first time, this outcome is more than just a possibility, it’s achievable. As revolutionary as this may sound, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to Westminster.
It’s no secret that the home nations have been inching closer to demanding independence for some time, now they’re just putting the wheels in motion. Plaid Cymru have been clear in their plea for the country’s independence, though this is not representative of the entirety of the nation’s parties.
Both Reform and Welsh Labour oppose the move to leave the United Kingdom and cite concerns as to whether the move would further divide Wales and weaken relations between the home nations. So, why do the Celtic nations want independence? Possible explanations for this are extensive, but a general feeling of being underrepresented prevails.
Politics in the UK has felt increasingly London-centred, with major decisions focusing around Westminster. This undoubtedly affects the nature of policies being created, and so becoming independent could give more power to the leaders of each country.
All this leads us to the big question; where is the UK heading? In a perfect world, a mutually beneficial relationship between Westminster and the Celtic nations would be reached, giving them more power to influence decisions.
However, this outcome is unlikely. Burnham recently stated that a referendum for Scotland is currently “off limits” whilst the government focuses on issues with the economy. Focusing on issues with the cost-of-living crisis will always be welcomed, however the dismissal of the nation’s longstanding wants to be heard will likely increase divisions between the UK.
It ultimately remains in the hands of Westminster as to whether a Celtic Coalition can be instated, though, if they refuse it would be naïve to assume that the nations would forget about this ambition.
The pact holds the power to change the UK. It should be considered that if citizens felt like more power had been awarded to their country, they would have more of a reason to use their vote and become democratically involved.
A Celtic Coalition is becoming more possible day by day. The signing of the Cardiff Agreement proves that the topic of independence is not going away, no matter how much Parliament might wish it would.
If Burnham is committed as he says he is to devolution, he will consider the pact more than just offering a cursory acknowledgement of the concerns. Where the ‘Burnham bounce’ is helping the PM thrive in England, the government must realize the UK is composed of individual countries who need their own power to thrive.
What works for England does not necessarily serve all of the home nations. So would a Celtic Coalition be too much devolution for a Burnham government? Where is he going to draw the line? There seems much to be discussed when Burnham meets the Celtic leaders later this month.