On April 26th, almost 7000 people were in attendance for a Welsh independence march in Barry, organised by leading independence movement, Yes Cymru. It comes as parties begin to prepare for the next Senedd election, in just under a year’s time. So, as Welsh Labour continues to plummet in the polls, what does this march mean for politics in Wales?
Yes Cymru, a non-politically affiliated organisation, was set up in 2016 as a sister movement to Yes Scotland. Its primary focus is campaigning for Welsh independence, an issue which continues to gain prominence in wider media. The organisation has come under criticism recently for mismanagement and lack of transparency on membership figures, however, their marches, organised alongside All Under One Banner (AUOB) have been known to unite the pro-independence community across Wales.
While Yes Cymru may not be politically affiliated, the marches are always attended by pro-independence party, Plaid Cymru. Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales) was founded in 1925. It saw the election of its first MP, Gwynfor Evans, in 1966.
Plaid Cymru’s primary focus is empowering the Welsh identity, in which independence is key. However, many in Wales feel excluded from the party because they cannot speak Welsh. This division has held Plaid Cymru back in the polls, but recent developments have accommodated some change.
The election of Leanne Wood as party leader in 2012 was a milestone for the party, electing its first non-Welsh speaking leader, who represented in the Senedd, what was, a Labour stronghold of Rhondda. Wood lost her seat in 2021, but the impact of her leadership is not forgotten. Speaking at the march in Barry, she placed great emphasis on holding more discussions about independence.
Plaid Cymru and independence can seem inaccessible to non-Welsh speakers, and so we must have productive conversations about independence if it is ever to be considered a serious option. The first referendum on Welsh devolution took place in 1979 but was lost by a considerable margin. The referendum in 1997 narrowly favoured devolution in Wales by a tiny margin, and in 1999, the Welsh Assembly was opened.
In 2020 it officially became Y Senedd, the Welsh Parliament. The parliamentary status permits more legislative powers than an assembly, however, issues on the economy and foreign policy are still controlled by Westminster. As there are now only 32 Welsh MPs in Westminster, issues on Welsh affairs are overwhelmingly dictated by English MPs.
The issue of the devolution of the Crown Estate has caused divisions between Welsh Labour Senedd members and Welsh Labour MPs. The Crown Estate is the land owned by the monarchy across the UK. The revenues made from this land in Scotland goes partly to the crown, and partly to the Scottish government.
In Wales however, this money goes to the crown and the UK Treasury. It should be noted that Scotland was only granted the devolution of the Crown Estate following the “no” vote in the 2014 independence referendum, widely considered to keep Scotland “on side”. A recent vote in Westminster on the devolution of the Crown Estate saw every Welsh Labour MP vote “no” other than three who abstained.
In the wake of this, every council in Wales except one has now declared they are in favour of devolving the Crown Estate to Wales. Wales’ Crown Estate value is estimated to be worth over £850 million. If 25% of this revenue went to the Crown as it does currently, Wales could still benefit from over £635 million.
Actor Michael Sheen explains that the money can be used to establish a sovereign wealth fund to deal with the most pressing economic issues in Wales; notably, the fact that one third of all children in Wales grow up in poverty. However, this is not the only economic issue motivating calls for independence. HS2 has been coined by Yes Cymru as “the great Wales train robbery”.
Despite not a single millimetre of track entering Wales, HS2 is categorised by the UK Government as a “Wales and England” project, meaning Wales is will not benefit from any additional Barnett funding (Barnett is the way in which money is distributed to each nation in the UK; the classification as an England and Wales project implies Wales does not need additional funding if it is to benefit from HS2, except it will not, because there is no track). If HS2 was to be reclassified as an “England only” project, Wales could be owed approximately £5 billion. By the UK government’s own measure, they estimate that HS2 will damage Wales’ economy by up to £200 million every year.
Pro-independence campaigners such as Yes Cymru rightfully point out that this is not to criticise the electrification of rail lines, however, it is currently impossible to get a train from Cardiff to north Wales without having to cross into England. If Wales is to incur significant costs due to HS2, we should at least benefit from it. Welsh independence is a topic which continues to gain traction, and it is because of issues such as the Crown Estate and HS2 that discussions about independence are becoming more mainstream.
Recent polling data conducted by YouGov on how people would vote at the next Senedd election found that Plaid Cymru is leading the parties, with 30% of the vote, Reform UK at 25% and Labour at 18%. Labour has been the leading party in Wales for over a century and has governed Wales since the dawn of devolution; we cannot underestimate the magnitude of this data. Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru recently stated that there would be no referendum on Welsh independence in Plaid’s first term, if they were to be elected.
This is a stark contrast from ap Iorwerth’s predecessor, Adam Price, who openly said during leadership debates that if there was a Plaid government, there would be a referendum before 2026. ap Iorwerth is focusing on making Plaid an accessible, trustworthy party, not wanting to make the same mistake as the SNP, who lost what is heralded a “once in a lifetime vote”. In response to the Barry march, former leader of the Welsh Conservative Senedd group, Andrew RT Davies said, “the vast majority [of marchers] will not be local” and “they [the public] want to focus on what matters, like our NHS, public services, improving living standards and reducing poverty.” He’s right. Independence, though on the rise, is not a priority for most people in Wales, parties such as Plaid need to prove that Welsh independence is a valid option before going forward with any vote.
The foundations of a true independence movement are here, support for independence is growing, but if independence is going to be a genuine option within our lifetimes, Plaid Cymru must first demonstrate why this should be the case to the wider public. Finally, Llyr Gruffydd, MS for North Wales, said this week that “independence is a journey”. Though the march in Barry signified that some are ready to take that journey, others are not, and we cannot pretend as though independence is something that could happen right now.
A recent commission on the future of Wales found that independence is viable, but this viability does not make it imminent. There is a long way to go between now and independence, and just because independence is viable does not mean people want it, at least, the majority of people in Wales do not want it right now. Recent polling data found that if a vote were held on independence now, 35% of people would vote in favour of independence, 50% say no, and 14% are unsure.
We cannot expect change to happen overnight, but the march signified a clear starting point for next year’s elections, where things are almost certainly about to change.