Can a New Party Leader Revive Labour?

Even the most ardent Keir Starmer fan will tell you that the last 15 months of power have not gone smoothly. From backbench rebellions, race riots, U-turns, and demagogic speeches, Labour has found its time in government much harder than expected. Keir Starmer bears part of the responsibility for Labour’s failure to convey confidence in their ability to lead.

So, would a new leader in Number 10 inject life back into Labour and help them claw voters back to their side? Andy Burnham clearly thinks so. Launching into a series of attacks on Starmer in recent weeks.

He has claimed that Labour has a “climate of fear” that stifled policy debate and stated that they were wrong to remove the whip from Labour MPs who had opposed Starmer’s two-child benefit cap, claiming that this was “unhealthy in a democracy,” Burnham has clearly expressed his dissatisfaction with the way the PM is leading the Party. A leadership change would be a high-risk, high-reward option. It would make Labour look weak and will be publicly stating that the PM they chose hasn’t been governing the country effectively.

However, it would also present an opportunity to change the strategy, away from the safe, slow approach of Keir Starmer, into something more radical, from the centre or from the left of the party. Labour may have a great deal of time to turn the pessimistic mood around, but if Starmer cannot inject life back into the Party, more dissident voices will emerge. It is important to state that Labour does not have a vote of no confidence they could enact to change leaders.

Instead, 20% of MPs (80 MPs) must choose a candidate to trigger a leadership contest. This does not seem insurmountable, given the number of MPs who have defied Starmer in votes in parliament, with the welfare bill being defeated by Labour’s own MPs. So, which candidate could mount a challenge against the PM?

Which candidate could mount a challenge against the PM?

Angela Rayner, former deputy leader, is an effective communicator, something the party desperately needs to win back workingclass votes that have fallen out of love with Starmer. Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, would also be highly likely to be put forward if MPs wanted to be rid of Starmer. He would represent the safer option, ideologically closer to Starmer than Rayner is.

The possibility of Andy Burnham becoming PM is distant. Whilst he has been described by a senior Labour individual as “the most popular politician in the country,” he would face a tough task of being eligible to be a candidate. Burnham would have to become an MP again through a by-election victory, which Starmer would devote as many resources as possible to prevent.

So, his attacks at the Labour conference against the PM may have been premature, a wiser strategy may have been to return to Westminster before going public with his dissatisfaction. It is a challenging time for Labour. Many within the party disagree with the direction that the PM has chosen to take.

There is still plenty of time for them to regain polling figures, however, the longer they languish behind Reform, the more credible the idea of replacing Keir Starmer becomes.